Pity poor Pierre Poilievre.
Just a few months ago, the Conservative Party leader seemed secure in his position, with an 87.4 per cent approval vote at his party’s leadership review.
He must have been looking forward to Canadians tiring of Prime Minister Carney. The shine wears off most leaders within a year, and with only a minority Liberal government, there might be an opportune moment to trigger an election.
And then, it would be time for a Conservative government and Prime Minister Poilievre!
Instead, five floor crossings – four of them from Conservative ranks – and a trio of byelections are expected to deliver a majority government to the Liberals.
But even if Carney wasn’t about to consolidate his power in the House of Commons, Poilievre is in no position to trigger a vote of no confidence and an election.
The latest polls put Liberal support at a solid 44 per cent, with the Conservatives trailing at 33 per cent. Poilievre’s personal approval rating remains in negative territory while Carney’s is positive.
How is this happening? It’s not because everything is going well in Canada.
Unemployment has been creeping slowly but steadily upward.
Housing is getting cheaper, but it’s still expensive. Interest rates are likely to rise later this year.
Gas prices have soared, and inflation will inevitably be dragged up along with them.
Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, while currently distracted, still occasionally refers to Canada’s prime ministers as “governors” of his fantasized 51st state.
But Carney gives the impression of competence and intelligence. When he speaks, you get the sense that he’s done the reading, absorbed the background info, thought about it. We may or may not agree with every decision, but there is a palpable sense that he’s not an idiot.
Poilievre is no idiot, either. But he’s Carney’s opposite in many ways.
Carney spent his entire career as a banker and bureaucrat; Poilievre has literally never held a job outside of politics since he was in his early 20s. Carney gives speeches that include historical allusions while Poilievre is a master of the Question Period attack, punchy enough to be transformed into a 30-second clip for social media.
There was no guarantee that Carney would have come out on top in this contest, but he did in the last election and he looks to be widening the gap now.
And that’s bad for Poilievre’s continued leadership.
You can lose an election and hang on to your role as head of a major party in Canada. But you can’t survive having your own party be nibbled away by your mortal enemies across the aisle.
Poilievre is currently trying to shore up his credibility with international travel, speeches, even an appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast. I suspect if there was another leadership review right now, Poilievre would still do well. But his own caucus is clearly losing patience with him.
In Canadian politics, there are two escape routes from opposition status. The first is you wait for the voters to get tired of your opponent. The second is to change your leadership. Poilievre’s best-before date is fast approaching.