The U.S. president’s new set of threatened tariffs will hit B.C.’s exports to the United States harder than any other province.
That’s according to an estimate by University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe, who suggested 13.7 per cent of B.C.’s U.S.-bound exports would be subject to the tariffs. That’s higher than Quebec’s 10.8 per cent, 9.0 per cent in Ontario, and far, far higher than Alberta’s 1.0 per cent.
Between wood products, aluminum, and other items already singled out for tariffs, B.C. has already taken a fair bit of pain from Donald Trump’s obsession with curtailing any foreign imports.
The silver lining is that B.C. exports less to the United States than any other province in Canada. In 2024, about 52.8 per cent of our exports went across the 49th Parallel, compared to a Canadian average of 71.2 per cent last year. We rely on our Pacific trade linkages for almost half of the goods we export, and expanding those links has been a priority for B.C. premiers and federal prime ministers of multiple parties, going back decades.
This is not to downplay the economic impact should this new set of tariffs come into force on Aug. 19. Some companies will be fine. Others will be hit hard.
Many of the most vulnerable firms are local to the Lower Mainland and Fraser Valley. With four land crossings between Peace Arch and Sumas, companies here have spent years or decades relying on free trade and close access to the American consumer. Businesses and careers were built on the assumption of a solid relationship with the States.
Now that it’s being unwound by forces beyond our control, we can talk about retaliation, via tariffs or export taxes.
But we can also keep pushing down the other path – trade diversification and internal markets.
The share of Canadian exports to the United States was 75 per cent a few years ago. It’s dropped significantly. So has B.C.’s U.S. trade percentage.
Canada’s ports are closer to Asia and Europe than American ports are, and we’re a more reliable trading partner. We can also trade with each other, from Fort St. John to Victoria.
We can never trust one neighbour for our prosperity again.