B.C. is trending toward warm and dry conditions in the weeks to come., according to the latest update on the summer wildfire season.
The province provided the latest on the wildfire situation and drought outlook on Tuesday (June 16) during a press conference in Vancouver. Emergency Management and Climate Readiness Minister Kelly Greene was joined by Forests Minister Ravi Parmar and Water, Land and Resource Stewardship Minister Randene Neill, as well as David Campbell, the head of B.C.’s River Forecast Centre, Neal McLoughlin, B.C. Wildfire Service’s superintendent of predictive services and Cliff Chapman, director of provincial operations for the wildfire service.
Current wildfire situation
The provincial situation report from B.C. Wildfire Service Monday (June 15) showed 13 wildfires currently burning, with two of those burning out of control.
The report added that warm and dry weather would be continuing across B.C. for the week, with a potential for strong winds and lightning as thunderstorms move across eastern regions. Despite recent rain across much of the province, some areas still remain drier than normal including the Interior, the northeast and southern parts of Vancouver Island.
So far this wildfire season, Parmar said, there have been a total of 300 wildfires with more than 4,200 hectares burned.
B.C.’s drought outlook
Campbell said B.C. experienced a “very warm winter,” especially across the southern half of the province. That pattern continued through spring.
The wildfire season officially begins April 1. Campbell said B.C. was at near-normal snow pack levels at that point at 92 per cent.
However, it didn’t stay that way and by June 1, B.C. was at 64 per cent of normal levels.
Campbell said that as of June 11, a little more than a quarter of the province is now in elevated drought levels.
He said a number of factors are elevating drought hazards this summer: a low snow pack, early snow melt, a dry spring and projection of a hot and dry summer moving forward.
How current drought levels can impact wildfire season
McLoughlin said that recent rains and a “slow start” to the wildfire season are “masking the underlying fire behaviour potential” for the summer.
“Regions with persistent drought will only require one to two weeks of normal summer weather to dry surface fuels, creating elevated fire danger and conditions that are conducive to extreme fire behavior,” he said.
The current drought conditions, he said, are worse compared to the same time of year in 2017, 2018 and 2021 – three historic wildfire seasons in recent history.
McLoughlin said an elevated peak in fire activity this summer is expected, but the exact timing is difficult to predict.
The years 2017 and 2021 saw fire activity peak in mid-July, while 2018 saw the peak in both late-June and mid-August.
“Mid-August peaks in fire activity can be much more impactful, starting twice as many fires as mid-July peaks,” McLoughlin said.
He added B.C. Wildfire Service will be watching for signs of strong ridge breakdowns, dry cold fronts and other weather patterns that could bring widespread lightning and increased wildfire activity.
“We’re just turning the corner into lightning season, and so we’re about to see a lot more fires originating from from lightning sources going forward into the summer months.”
Out of the 13 active wildfires, only two are shown to be caused by lightning.