In a typical winter, there is nothing else quite like the Lake Windermere Whiteway.
For over 30 kilometres skaters can glide over the lake that holds the Guinness World Record as the longest skating track, or cross-country ski along groomed runs with a scenic view of the Rocky Mountains.
But there’s very few typical winters anymore. This year, warm temperatures meant the Whiteway could only open for a brief time in February.
Quentin Randall, general manager of Toby Creek Nordic Ski Club that maintains the Whiteway, said it was a challenging season for one of British Columbia’s most unique winter attractions.
“It was a warmer winter than normal, there was less snow than normal. We got it open for a short period, but the weather didn’t co-operate this year.”
To prepare for future winters, Toby Creek Nordic Ski Club is using data from a tool co-developed by Mel Reasoner of Climatic Resources Consulting and Selkirk Innovates.
The Risk Analysis Calculator, available at basinclimatesource.ca/risk-analysis, uses climate change projection data to help planners and builders future-proof against rising temperatures and precipitation.
Randall says the data will help the club’s board of directors make informed decisions about buying equipment or infrastructure investments.
“It was really just something to give us a little bit more data and a perspective on making those decisions through a climate change lens,” said Randall.
The free calculator provides forecasting for Castlegar, Cranbrook, Creston, Fernie, Golden, Nakusp, Nelson, Revelstoke and Trail, and uses historic weather data from Environment and Climate Change Canada as well as modelling from Climate Data Canada and the University of Victoria’s Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium.
Reasoner, a local climate scientist, began working on the tool about a decade ago after he realized that assessing how climate change will impact community assets was essentially a guessing game.
“I always thought, boy, that’s pretty shaky. There’s got to be a better way to do this.”
Reasoner developed a way to compute the probability that communities will exceed temperature thresholds, then began work with Selkirk College’s research arm in 2020 to make it accessible.
Here’s how it works:
First a user picks a city, then selects one of three indicators that include hottest daytime temperature, heat warning, and maximum one-day precipitation.
Users then pick the threshold (heat, for example, might be a temperature of 40 C), a percentage of confidence they have in that threshold’s accuracy, and a target year for the data to run to.
On the right side of the window, the top graph shows historical and projected conditions. The solid black line marks the historic record, while three coloured lines show the estimated threshold based on three emissions scenarios. Blue assumes net-zero emissions by 2050, which is unlikely; green assumes net zero by 2100; and red projects global emissions roughly doubling by 2050. (Reasoner says that is the worst-case scenario, and also the one that makes the most sense to plan for.)
The bottom graph shows the probability of the threshold being reached in an individual year. So if the temperature is set for 40 C, the solid line shows in a percentage the likelihood of a community reaching that mark.
The dotted lines meanwhile show cumulative probability, which is how likely it is for a city to reach the threshold just once. For example, if the cumulative probability is 76.4 per cent for 2056, that means there is a 76.4 per cent chance that the temperature reaches the threshold mark at least once in any given year up to 2056.
So how would this get used?
Suppose Nelson wanted to replace its bridge, and the project requires a piece that falls apart when the temperature reaches 42 C. The Risk Analysis Calculator shows when thermometers in the city might read 42. If that occurs by 2050, planners will know the new bridge will run into issues within 24 years of today if the part is used.
“If the probability of failure exceeds the risk appetite, then that’s a big red flag,” said Reasoner.
Selkirk Innovates’ faculty researcher Jonathan Doyle, an atmospheric physicist who led development of the tool, said it has already been used to assess what material should be considered for new roads, bridges and electrical transformers. They are also working with the City of Edmonton on how climate change data can be used for its infrastructure planning.
Doyle said right now the Kootenays’ data is limited to cities, which makes it relevant for the most users, but he envisions improving it further.
“What we would like to do is have it be able to do the same analysis but at a more precise location or orography or topography and climatological context, so that you can say, ‘OK, I’m building a house or a new ski operation or whatever up on the mountain.’ And then that’s going to directly inform what materials you need to use.”
But the tool isn’t just for infrastructure planning.
Reasoner and Doyle have designed it to be used by the general public. Doyle said anyone who wants to know what climate change will mean for their communities in the decades to come can use the calculator.
“Something more politically charged like climate change, especially on the internet today with how things are presented and misrepresented, it’s how we can present this in a way that’s clear and also not misrepresenting and not allowing for people to take it out of context.”
The Selkirk Innovates team that worked on the Risk Analysis Calculator with Reasoner and Doyle also included researchers Lauren Rethoret and Ryan Bradshaw, research assistant Lucas Speilman, and student interns Martin Lou, Matthew Tran, Oliver Macnaughton, and Brent Machado.