Its early blooming season has long been something Victoria has long liked to flaunt before its neighbours in less mild climates across the province and the country.
But avid walkers in and around B.C.’s capital region have noticed spring blossoms showing up this year in volumes that are considered untimely even below the 49th parallel.
And the pictures of early flowers that have been circulating on social media since late December might not be something people should necessarily be boasting about, according to a couple experts on the matter.
Andrew Weaver, a professor at UVic’s School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, said the blossoms seen everywhere are likely a result of climate change. According to Weaver, as a consequence of using the atmosphere as an unregulated trash can for waste, humans are creating a blanket that leads to global warming.
Due to global warming, the amount of moisture precipitation also goes up, giving us warmer winters.
“This is exactly what we would expect with a warming world, and we’re just seeing a manifestation this year that’s coming out in terms of blossoms and flowers,” he said.
These warmer winter temperatures have been a trend over the past 40 years since the late 1980s, said Weaver. This trend, as he explains, is not a straight line. A trend of global warming doesn’t mean it’s going to be warmer every year.
“It means that there’s a trend, but there’s still lots of wiggles. So maybe next year will be cold, but the year after will be warm. But what we can say is that the likelihood of warm winters like this is increasing more and more.”
He also pointed out that this is a La Nina year, when typically colder winters are expected in this region.
He has also noticed changes in migration patterns among birds, showing that the entire ecosystem changes as the climate changes.
“The rate of change is so fast that this puts stress on many ecosystems, which is why we’re seeing the demise of corals and many species are struggling to maintain themselves in the changing climate.”
University of Victoria biology professor Barbara Hawkins explained that after the trees lose their leaves, they become dormant and more tolerant to cold over the winter, and plum blossoms are normally the earliest flowering trees.
Usually, the warmer temperatures that arrive in late February and early March trigger the trees to lose their hardiness and dormancy and start to grow again.
“So because we haven’t had any winter cold, and we’ve had all this nice warm weather above probably 5 degrees or so, they accumulate heat, and then they flush. They bloom or they start to grow their leaves,” Hawkins said.
She attributes this pattern in early blooming to warmer weather.
One of the big worries about climate change, according to Hawkins, is that when there are greater swings in temperature, the trees will de-harden too early. Then, when a late spring frost arrives, they won’t be able to handle it and will kill all the delicate new growth.
“They have lots of little hidden buds that they would grow again from. It certainly would damage the plant. And if it happens over and over again, then eventually they would die because it uses a lot of reserves to kill off all the growth and then make some new growth.”
Some Black Press Media readers, meanwhile, have identified many of the Victoria blossoms as a variety of fall and winter-blooming plum and cherry trees that start around November in the region; if the volume is unusual, they say the phenomenon is not.
“I’ve been wandering around Victoria taking photos of winter blooms for more than 40 years, and I’ve noticed that there are some specific trees that always bloom early – regardless of whether it’s a cold winter or a mild one,” Susanne Deacon wrote.
“These are different from the other varieties that bloom in February, March, and April,” Steven Murray agreed.