Ottawa’s new energy and pipeline deal with Alberta is a reckless move by Prime Minister Mark Carney, one that may fatally wound his “Team Canada” approach to the era of Trump and tariffs.
Carney’s memorandum of understanding covers a lot of ground, from interprovincial electricity connectivity, to nuclear power, to AI data centres, but the keystone is the promise to allow Alberta to build a brand-new oil pipeline to somewhere on B.C.’s North Coast.
That’s about all we know about it.
There is as yet no route, no existing oil terminal on the Pacifica, no actual corporate proponent or consortium ready to build the pipeline, and most importantly, no funding.
Considering that the Trans Mountain expansion – which mostly followed an existing route and uses an existing terminal – cost a whopping $34.2 billion, we can guess that a new route would cost in the neighbourhood of $40 to $50 billion.
The pipeline dream itself is highly speculative. In a world where China is using less oil, what will the economics of a Pacific export terminal look like in the 2030s, which is the soonest we can expect such a project to be realized?
Many have already speculated that under these conditions, there may never be a pipeline. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith cannot wish one into existence.
Yet the deal was still a damaging one.
Carney chose to exclude the First Nations on whose territory such a pipeline would be built from any preliminary discussions. This could prove the basis of a major court challenge.
The government of Canada has a duty to consult with Indigenous Canadians when it might impact existing or potential treaty rights, and most B.C. First Nations still don’t have signed treaties. Potentially, dozens of First Nations on the Coast could have to be consulted, since their traditional fisheries would be the ones impacted by a tanker spill.
Meanwhile, B.C. Premier David Eby, also not consulted about a pipeline that would be mostly built in this province, is seething. He says the province won’t try to contest federal authority – that failed with Trans Mountain – but they aren’t rolling out the red carpet, either.
With one memo, Carney has created a generational political headache, and a pipeline remains no closer to reality than before.