After one of the most economically alarming years since the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada’s economy has held up shockingly well.
The last Labour Force Survey of 2025 was released on Jan. 9, and it showed that overall, 8,200 more Canadians had jobs than in the month before. Unemployment ticked up to 6.8 per cent, but that was because more people were looking for work, not because of mass job losses.
Hourly wages trended higher, with those who are working making 3.4 per cent more than a year ago – impressively, this means wages are still rising faster than inflation.
This is small consolation to those who have lost a job in the last 12 months, or to the young people looking for a first job – youth unemployment is up and is one of the signs that there are real weaknesses in the economy.
These tepid numbers come despite tariffs and the threat of tariffs from south of our border. Softwood lumber, steel and aluminum, and auto and auto parts manufacturing have been hammered. There have been threats, from the alarming (tariffs on our film and TV productions, somehow) to very dire (annexing Canada to the United States).
These are the sorts of things that tend to discourage hiring, suppress new business investment, and just generally alarm anyone who is thinking of hiring.
In other words, under these circumstances, tepid is good. Tepid is, frankly, amazing.
By the skin of our teeth, we’ve avoided a recession.
This has bought us time, which is by far the most valuable commodity.
The promises made in the federal election last April have yet to be fulfilled. Canada’s economy needs to be diversified, away from the U.S. as much as is possible for two countries that share such a long border.
Some inter-provincial trade barriers have been torn down, but others remain in place. And our economy needs to be made more productive, in ways that benefit the broadest spectrum of working people and their families. Education, immigration, and supporting new startups are all part of the work needing to be done to make Canada a place of stable and durable prosperity.
The immediate job of Prime Minister Mark Carney and our premiers is to build further shock absorbers into the economy.
The resilience of the economy thus far probably does owe something to the changes our leaders have already made. But it is also thanks to many business owners and managers, of operations small and large. And it’s thanks to countless workers, who as usual, have been asked to do more with less and have somehow pulled it off.
In 2026, we can build from a position of hard-earned stability, which is better than rebuilding after a crash.
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